Follow the LEED

The COVID-19 pandemic has had a well-documented impact on the U.S. economy, the construction industry and real estate.

But what impact has the COVID-19 pandemic had on the momentum of green building projects in the United States over the past two years?  

To answer this, I looked to the U.S. Green Building Council and the LEED rating system.

LEED would seem to be the ideal proxy. Consider that since the year 2000 in the U.S. alone, nearly 76,000 building structures and more than 6.1 billion gross square feet of building space has become LEED certified.

So, what does LEED data tell us about the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on green building design and construction in U.S.? The following are three observations.

LEED Certified Space Has Been Stable the Past Three Years for Construction but Operations and Maintenance in Non-residential Space Has Declined

Over the past decade (2012-2021), the averages for new nonresidential LEED certified work in the United States has been notably consistent. Since the Great Recession, certified space under LEED BD+C has been between 200,000 and 244,000 square-feet per year. Add certified space under LEED ID+C, LEED O+M, and LEED for Homes, and the annual LEED certified gross square footage has not dipped below 400,000 since 2008. That is, until the pandemic.

More recently, over the past three years (2019-2021), the U.S. has averaged:

• Nearly 355 million square-feet of LEED certified building space per year;
• Over 29 million square-feet of LEED certified building space per month; and
• Approximately 972,000 square-feet of LEED certified building space per day.

A breakdown of the square footage by rating system type reveals that the BD+C, ID+C, and homes remains consistent. A notable drop from 2019 to 2020 is attributed to notable reduction in O+M certified space.

This would stand to reason. Commercial real estate continues to struggle since the start of the pandemic. Understandably, as many sectors of the economy experiment with hybrid work models, space needs are less and enterprises are consolidating. The number of O+M projects has not dropped as precipitously, which may suggest that enterprises are doing more with less.

The number of LEED certified projects have remained stable through the pandemic.

The total number of LEED certified projects in the United States fluctuates from year-to-year. The number of LEED certified projects rose prior to and throughout the Great Recession, reaching an all-time high of just over 6,800 in 2013 but have not been below 4,000 since 2009.

Through the pandemic, the total number of LEED projects actually increased; however, 2021 totals were nearly identical to 2019. Despite lockdown measures and economic tumult, the total number of LEED certified projects in the U.S. do not appear to have been impacted significantly by the pandemic.

Residential Projections Are Trending Upward

The spread of LEED of building structures certified under BD+C, ID+C, O+M, and homes have remained consistent as well. Interestingly, LEED for Homes projects increased throughout the pandemic and if this trend continues, it may be indicative of a post-pandemic market shift in homebuilding—possibly driven by incentives for multifamily projects.

The Takeaway

In short, the most recent LEED data reflects the corrections taking place in commercial real estate. As enterprises strategize for re-entry and confront shifts toward a range of hybrid work models, there may be a significant increase in underutilized assets. This is an opportunity. Could greener, healthier work environments—validated through the paces of LEED and other rating systems—be part of this solution? The "plaque on the wall" brings the confidence of a holistic, rigorous, third-party reviewed process.

One thing seems clear from the recent LEED data: demand for green building design and construction has been sustained through the pandemic. For sustainability advocates, this would seem to bode well for the future of green building in the post-pandemic construction boom.